NASDAQ Composite
The NASDAQ Composite index includes over 3,000 stocks listed on the Nasdaq exchange, heavily weighted toward technology and growth companies.
The seasonal picture for NASDAQ right now is sharply divided. The last 10 consecutive years paint a bullish case, with 90-day win rates hitting 90% and projected returns of 27% to a target near 31,587. But midterm election years tell a starkly different story: win rates collapse to 38.5% across both 30 and 90-day windows, with average losses of 1.5% to 3.3% and downside targets approaching 23,281.
NASDAQ's growth-stock concentration amplifies political uncertainty cycles, making midterm seasonality particularly punishing here. The 52-percentage-point gap in 90-day win rates between the two datasets is the critical tension to watch. Investors should monitor whether the index holds current levels through the midterm volatility window before the historically stronger post-election recovery typically emerges.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest NASDAQ Composite may be headed.
Projection as of May 15, 2026 from closing price $24,919.77
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data for the NASDAQ Composite reflects how the index has historically performed during this same calendar period across prior years. The consecutive pattern shows a 90.0% win rate, meaning the index closed higher 60 days later in 9 out of 10 comparable historical instances. The midterm election year pattern tells a notably different story, with a win rate of just 46.2%.
When two bases diverge as sharply as these do, it signals that the election cycle has historically produced conditions distinct from the broader seasonal trend. The median return is often more useful than the average because extreme outliers in either direction can skew averages, while the median reflects the more typical outcome across those years.
Seasonal patterns cannot account for unexpected developments such as earnings surprises, policy shifts, geopolitical events, or sudden changes in monetary policy. A 90.0% win rate still leaves a meaningful probability of a down period, and no historical pattern guarantees any specific outcome in the current year. These projections represent statistical tendencies drawn from the past, not predictions of future performance.
Market participants often use seasonal data as one layer of context alongside fundamental analysis, technical indicators, and macroeconomic conditions. Understanding historical tendencies can help frame expectations and inform how other signals are interpreted, without replacing the broader analytical process.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how NASDAQ Composite has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 trading days, this pattern has been positive 9 of 10 times with an average return of +6.0%.
Midterm Election Years (13 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 13 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 6 times with an average return of -3.2%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
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