27 years of seasonal data. AI scored daily.
S&P 500 Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) has historically averaged +2.7% in Oct with a 70% win rate over 27 years of data, making Oct the best month to buy XLK stock. Feb is the weakest month, averaging -1.6%. TradeWave's AI currently assigns XLK a long seasonal bias with a score of 93.7 and 81.9% win probability, based on 27 years of comparable seasonal windows.
Average monthly return from 1999 to 2026. Green bars are positive months, red bars are negative. The highlighted bar is XLK's historically strongest month.
Based on 27 years of data (1999 to 2026). Best month is Oct, highlighted in gold.
All 12 months, based on 27 years of historical price data.
| Month | Avg Return | Win Rate | Best Year | Worst Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | +0.63% | 50% | +26.4% | -11.0% |
| Feb (worst) | -1.57% | 32% | +8.2% | -24.9% |
| Mar | +0.72% | 61% | +13.9% | -13.9% |
| Apr | +1.73% | 61% | +19.4% | -13.1% |
| May | +1.61% | 61% | +18.0% | -11.7% |
| Jun | +0.86% | 50% | +12.1% | -10.7% |
| Jul | +1.45% | 63% | +13.2% | -6.9% |
| Aug | +0.95% | 63% | +11.7% | -14.5% |
| Sep | -1.57% | 56% | +8.9% | -17.9% |
| Oct (best) | +2.68% | 70% | +18.4% | -15.3% |
| Nov | +2.23% | 67% | +12.5% | -18.9% |
| Dec | +0.40% | 59% | +14.3% | -13.5% |
2026 is a midterm (year 2) year in the 4 year presidential cycle. The same monthly seasonality recomputed using only prior midterm (year 2) years (2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022) often tells a very different story. Months where the cycle phase diverges most from the long-run average are where seasonal edges either compound or evaporate.
| Month | All Years Avg | Midterm (Year 2) Avg | Difference | Sample (Phase) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | +0.63% | -2.61% | -3.24 pts | 6 yr |
| Feb | -1.57% | -1.40% | +0.17 pts | 6 yr |
| Mar | +0.72% | +1.75% | +1.03 pts | 6 yr |
| Apr | +1.73% | -3.78% | -5.51 pts | 6 yr |
| May | +1.61% | -1.81% | -3.42 pts | 6 yr |
| Jun | +0.86% | -4.37% | -5.23 pts | 6 yr |
| Jul | +1.45% | +2.35% | +0.90 pts | 6 yr |
| Aug | +0.95% | +1.37% | +0.42 pts | 6 yr |
| Sep | -1.57% | -1.94% | -0.37 pts | 6 yr |
| Oct | +2.68% | +4.68% | +2.00 pts | 6 yr |
| Nov | +2.23% | +3.76% | +1.53 pts | 6 yr |
| Dec | +0.40% | -4.92% | -5.32 pts | 6 yr |
Highlighted rows show months where midterm (year 2) years diverge by more than 3 percentage points from the long-run average. Sample sizes are small by design. Each cycle phase contains roughly one year in four of historical data.
Monthly averages show you the general direction. TradeWave goes further, scanning up to 98 years of daily price data to detect specific recurring date-range windows where XLK has shown the strongest historical consistency.
TradeWave has identified 102 precise windows active for XLK right now, each with specific entry and exit dates and an AI-scored probability. These aren't broad monthly trends. They're exact date ranges backed by decades of historical data.
2026 is classified as midterm (year 2) in the 4 year presidential cycle. Historically, XLK has averaged -2.5% returns in this cycle phase.
AI scored patterns, entry and exit windows, historical backtests, and daily picks. Free tier available.
Compare XLK's seasonal trends with similar stocks. S&P 500 Technology Sector SPDR's best month is Oct (+2.7% avg). See how these related tickers compare.
Seasonal analysis, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Last updated 2026-07-04