27 years of seasonal data. AI scored daily.
S&P 500 Financials Sector SPDR (XLF) has historically averaged +2.1% in Apr with a 61% win rate over 27 years of data, making Apr the best month to buy XLF stock. Feb is the weakest month, averaging -1.4%. TradeWave's AI currently assigns XLF a long seasonal bias with a score of 95.1 and 84.5% win probability, based on 27 years of comparable seasonal windows.
Average monthly return from 1999 to 2026. Green bars are positive months, red bars are negative. The highlighted bar is XLF's historically strongest month.
Based on 27 years of data (1999 to 2026). Best month is Apr, highlighted in gold.
All 12 months, based on 27 years of historical price data.
| Month | Avg Return | Win Rate | Best Year | Worst Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -0.48% | 50% | +8.0% | -27.0% |
| Feb (worst) | -1.42% | 46% | +10.2% | -17.8% |
| Mar | +0.77% | 46% | +25.0% | -24.9% |
| Apr (best) | +2.15% | 61% | +18.4% | -9.7% |
| May | +0.26% | 57% | +14.8% | -10.9% |
| Jun | -0.71% | 39% | +9.1% | -16.2% |
| Jul | +1.38% | 63% | +9.5% | -9.8% |
| Aug | +0.37% | 56% | +10.2% | -10.1% |
| Sep | -0.81% | 48% | +7.7% | -9.4% |
| Oct | +1.85% | 63% | +19.7% | -24.9% |
| Nov | +1.98% | 67% | +14.7% | -18.9% |
| Dec | +1.86% | 67% | +20.4% | -11.7% |
2026 is a midterm (year 2) year in the 4 year presidential cycle. The same monthly seasonality recomputed using only prior midterm (year 2) years (2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022) often tells a very different story. Months where the cycle phase diverges most from the long-run average are where seasonal edges either compound or evaporate.
| Month | All Years Avg | Midterm (Year 2) Avg | Difference | Sample (Phase) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -0.48% | -0.51% | -0.03 pts | 6 yr |
| Feb | -1.42% | +0.44% | +1.86 pts | 6 yr |
| Mar | +0.77% | +3.15% | +2.38 pts | 6 yr |
| Apr | +2.15% | -1.24% | -3.39 pts | 6 yr |
| May | +0.26% | -1.84% | -2.10 pts | 6 yr |
| Jun | -0.71% | -2.96% | -2.25 pts | 6 yr |
| Jul | +1.38% | +1.76% | +0.38 pts | 6 yr |
| Aug | +0.37% | +0.20% | -0.17 pts | 6 yr |
| Sep | -0.81% | -2.06% | -1.25 pts | 6 yr |
| Oct | +1.85% | +2.62% | +0.77 pts | 6 yr |
| Nov | +1.98% | +2.27% | +0.29 pts | 6 yr |
| Dec | +1.86% | -1.05% | -2.91 pts | 6 yr |
Highlighted rows show months where midterm (year 2) years diverge by more than 3 percentage points from the long-run average. Sample sizes are small by design. Each cycle phase contains roughly one year in four of historical data.
Monthly averages show you the general direction. TradeWave goes further, scanning up to 98 years of daily price data to detect specific recurring date-range windows where XLF has shown the strongest historical consistency.
TradeWave has identified 60 precise windows active for XLF right now, each with specific entry and exit dates and an AI-scored probability. These aren't broad monthly trends. They're exact date ranges backed by decades of historical data.
2026 is classified as midterm (year 2) in the 4 year presidential cycle. Historically, XLF has averaged +0.5% returns in this cycle phase.
AI scored patterns, entry and exit windows, historical backtests, and daily picks. Free tier available.
Compare XLF's seasonal trends with similar stocks. S&P 500 Financials Sector SPDR's best month is Apr (+2.1% avg). See how these related tickers compare.
Seasonal analysis, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Last updated 2026-07-04