27 years of seasonal data. AI scored daily.
S&P 500 Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) has historically averaged +2.9% in Apr with a 54% win rate over 27 years of data, making Apr the best month to buy XLE stock. Sep is the weakest month, averaging -0.5%. TradeWave's AI currently assigns XLE a short seasonal bias with a score of 95.1 and 84.5% win probability, based on 27 years of comparable seasonal windows.
Average monthly return from 1999 to 2026. Green bars are positive months, red bars are negative. The highlighted bar is XLE's historically strongest month.
Based on 27 years of data (1999 to 2026). Best month is Apr, highlighted in gold.
All 12 months, based on 27 years of historical price data.
| Month | Avg Return | Win Rate | Best Year | Worst Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | +0.41% | 50% | +15.2% | -12.4% |
| Feb | +1.29% | 61% | +21.6% | -14.2% |
| Mar | +1.76% | 68% | +15.3% | -36.9% |
| Apr (best) | +2.90% | 54% | +37.6% | -14.4% |
| May | +0.32% | 50% | +14.2% | -12.4% |
| Jun | -0.32% | 57% | +8.0% | -18.4% |
| Jul | -0.26% | 56% | +8.8% | -16.3% |
| Aug | +0.22% | 52% | +8.9% | -10.1% |
| Sep (worst) | -0.53% | 52% | +10.6% | -14.0% |
| Oct | +0.83% | 41% | +23.3% | -17.4% |
| Nov | +1.54% | 59% | +23.8% | -8.2% |
| Dec | +0.77% | 48% | +11.9% | -14.3% |
2026 is a midterm (year 2) year in the 4 year presidential cycle. The same monthly seasonality recomputed using only prior midterm (year 2) years (2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022) often tells a very different story. Months where the cycle phase diverges most from the long-run average are where seasonal edges either compound or evaporate.
| Month | All Years Avg | Midterm (Year 2) Avg | Difference | Sample (Phase) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | +0.41% | +1.99% | +1.58 pts | 6 yr |
| Feb | +1.29% | -0.96% | -2.25 pts | 6 yr |
| Mar | +1.76% | +4.10% | +2.34 pts | 6 yr |
| Apr | +2.90% | +2.74% | -0.16 pts | 6 yr |
| May | +0.32% | +0.10% | -0.22 pts | 6 yr |
| Jun | -0.32% | -2.03% | -1.71 pts | 6 yr |
| Jul | -0.26% | +0.93% | +1.19 pts | 6 yr |
| Aug | +0.22% | +0.05% | -0.17 pts | 6 yr |
| Sep | -0.53% | -2.25% | -1.72 pts | 6 yr |
| Oct | +0.83% | +2.11% | +1.28 pts | 6 yr |
| Nov | +1.54% | +1.26% | -0.28 pts | 6 yr |
| Dec | +0.77% | -2.48% | -3.25 pts | 6 yr |
Highlighted rows show months where midterm (year 2) years diverge by more than 3 percentage points from the long-run average. Sample sizes are small by design. Each cycle phase contains roughly one year in four of historical data.
Monthly averages show you the general direction. TradeWave goes further, scanning up to 98 years of daily price data to detect specific recurring date-range windows where XLE has shown the strongest historical consistency.
TradeWave tracks over 475 stocks and ETFs daily, scoring every pattern window as it activates. XLE has no active precision windows today, but new ones can open any day. Members get alerted the moment a high-probability window starts.
2026 is classified as midterm (year 2) in the 4 year presidential cycle. Historically, XLE has averaged +7.9% returns in this cycle phase.
AI scored patterns, entry and exit windows, historical backtests, and daily picks. Free tier available.
Compare XLE's seasonal trends with similar stocks. S&P 500 Energy Sector SPDR's best month is Apr (+2.9% avg). See how these related tickers compare.
Seasonal analysis, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Last updated 2026-07-04