LOW Next 30 Days: AI LONG (score 88.1)

Q: Is LOW a good stock to buy right now?

Over the last 45 years, LOW has averaged -0.95% in the 30 days after 2026-07-04, winning 24 of 44 completed years. TradeWave's AI derives a LONG bias with an AI Score of 88.1 and 78.7% model win probability. This is seasonal pattern analysis, not a buy recommendation.

Q: Does LOW follow election cycle patterns?

Yes. In prior midterm (year 2) years (11 samples), LOW's biggest cycle-phase divergence is Jul (-5.5% in this phase versus -0.2% all-years). The strongest cycle-phase tailwind is May (+5.2% in this phase versus +2.1% all-years).

Best Month Nov +3.9% 67% win rate

Worst Month Sep -0.8% 47% win rate

AI Bias LONG 88.1 78.7% win prob

History 45 yrs Updated daily

Lowe's (LOW) has historically averaged +3.9% in Nov with a 67% win rate over 45 years of data, making Nov the best month to buy LOW stock. Sep is the weakest month, averaging -0.8%. TradeWave's AI currently assigns LOW a long seasonal bias with a score of 88.1 and 78.7% win probability, based on 45 years of comparable seasonal windows.

Next 30 Days for LOW: Seasonal Outlook

Over the last 45 years, buying LOW on this calendar date (2026-07-04) and holding through 2026-08-03 produced -0.95% on average, with 24 winning years and 20 losing years. TradeWave's AI derives a LONG bias for this setup.

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Midterm (Year 2) only (11 samples)

LOW has averaged -6.51% in this 30-day window during midterm years (5 up, 6 down).

That's -5.56 pts vs the all-years average of -0.95%. 2026 is a midterm year.

AI Score: 88.1 LONG bias 78.7% Model Win Prob +2.66% Predicted +7.21% Peak

Best historical year in this window: 1992 (+21.5%). Worst: 1990 (-39.3%). This synthetic 30-day setup is re-scored daily.

See LOW in TradeWave →

Monthly Seasonality for LOW

Average monthly return from 1981 to 2026. Green bars are positive months, red bars are negative. The highlighted bar is LOW's historically strongest month.

Based on 45 years of data (1981 to 2026). Best month is Nov, highlighted in gold.

LOW Monthly Performance Stats

All 12 months, based on 45 years of historical price data.

Month	Avg Return	Win Rate	Best Year	Worst Year
Jan	+2.76%	61%	+24.7%	-19.9%
Feb	+2.51%	61%	+22.4%	-14.0%
Mar	+2.96%	54%	+25.8%	-22.5%
Apr	-0.38%	50%	+31.0%	-38.4%
May	+2.11%	48%	+36.0%	-15.7%
Jun	-0.26%	52%	+18.9%	-15.9%
Jul	-0.24%	51%	+21.6%	-39.5%
Aug	+1.67%	56%	+24.4%	-24.7%
Sep (worst)	-0.84%	47%	+13.9%	-17.3%
Oct	+0.77%	56%	+24.0%	-26.2%
Nov (best)	+3.91%	67%	+32.2%	-14.1%
Dec	+3.10%	62%	+23.5%	-12.3%

LOW: All Years vs Midterm (Year 2) Only

2026 is a midterm (year 2) year in the 4 year presidential cycle. The same monthly seasonality recomputed using only prior midterm (year 2) years (1982, 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022) often tells a very different story. Months where the cycle phase diverges most from the long-run average are where seasonal edges either compound or evaporate.

Month	All Years Avg	Midterm (Year 2) Avg	Difference	Sample (Phase)
Jan	+2.76%	+1.70%	-1.06 pts	11 yr
Feb	+2.51%	+2.99%	+0.48 pts	11 yr
Mar	+2.96%	+3.91%	+0.95 pts	11 yr
Apr	-0.38%	+1.98%	+2.36 pts	11 yr
May	+2.11%	+5.25%	+3.14 pts	11 yr
Jun	-0.26%	-2.66%	-2.40 pts	11 yr
Jul	-0.24%	-5.53%	-5.29 pts	11 yr
Aug	+1.67%	+2.05%	+0.38 pts	11 yr
Sep	-0.84%	-2.40%	-1.56 pts	11 yr
Oct	+0.77%	+3.44%	+2.67 pts	11 yr
Nov	+3.91%	+6.57%	+2.66 pts	11 yr
Dec	+3.10%	+1.04%	-2.06 pts	11 yr

Highlighted rows show months where midterm (year 2) years diverge by more than 3 percentage points from the long-run average. Sample sizes are small by design. Each cycle phase contains roughly one year in four of historical data.

Beyond Monthly Averages: Precision Seasonal Windows

Monthly averages show you the general direction. TradeWave goes further, scanning up to 98 years of daily price data to detect specific recurring date-range windows where LOW has shown the strongest historical consistency.

127 Active patterns right now

252d Window length (top pattern)

79% AI win probability

TradeWave has identified 127 precise windows active for LOW right now, each with specific entry and exit dates and an AI-scored probability. These aren't broad monthly trends. They're exact date ranges backed by decades of historical data.

See LOW's Active Patterns →

LOW in Midterm (Year 2)

2026 is classified as midterm (year 2) in the 4 year presidential cycle. Historically, LOW has averaged +16.7% returns in this cycle phase.

Post-Election

+33.8%

Midterm

+16.7%

Pre-Election

+6.1%

Election

+13.5%

Key Dates for LOW

Next Earnings

2026-08-19

46 days away

Best Month to Buy

Nov

Avg +3.91%, 67% win rate

Worst Month

Sep

Avg -0.84%

LOW Seasonal Pattern FAQ

Is LOW a good stock to buy right now?

Over the last 45 years, LOW has averaged -0.95% in the 30 days after 2026-07-04, winning 24 of 44 completed years. TradeWave's AI derives a LONG bias for this setup with an AI Score of 88.1 and 78.7% model win probability. This is seasonal pattern analysis, not a buy recommendation.

What is the best month to buy Lowe's stock?

Based on 45 years of historical data, Nov is the best month to buy Lowe's (LOW) stock, with an average return of +3.9% and a 67% win rate.

What is the worst month for LOW stock?

Sep is historically the worst month for Lowe's (LOW) stock, with an average return of -0.8% and a 47% win rate over 45 years of data.

Should I buy or sell LOW stock?

TradeWave's AI seasonal analysis currently shows a long bias for LOW over the next 30 days, with an AI score of 88.1. This is based on how LOW has historically performed during this same calendar window across 45 prior years. Seasonal patterns are one factor among many and should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions.

Does Lowe's follow seasonal patterns?

Yes. Lowe's (LOW) shows measurable seasonal tendencies across 45 years of historical data. The strongest month is Nov (+3.9% average return, 67% win rate) and the weakest is Sep (-0.8% average). These patterns are driven by factors like earnings cycles, tax-loss harvesting, fund rebalancing, and investor sentiment shifts. TradeWave's AI scores these patterns daily and identifies the highest-probability seasonal windows.

What is LOW's stock forecast for 2026?

For the current seasonal window, TradeWave's AI projects a long bias for LOW with -0.9% average historical return over the next 30 days. 2026 is a midterm (year 2) year in the presidential election cycle, which can amplify or dampen seasonal effects. See the election cycle section above for 2026-specific analysis.

Does LOW follow election cycle patterns?

Yes, the cycle phase changes the picture for LOW. Across all years, LOW's strongest month is Nov (+3.9% avg). Looking only at prior midterm (year 2) years (11 samples: 1982, 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022), the biggest divergence is Jul, which averages -5.5% in this cycle phase versus -0.2% across all years (a -5.3 point shift). The strongest cycle-phase tailwind is May at +5.2% versus +2.1% all-years. 2026 is a midterm (year 2) year, so the cycle-filtered numbers are the more relevant guide right now.

How has LOW performed historically by month?

Over 45 years of data, Lowe's (LOW) shows distinct monthly patterns. The best month is Nov (+3.9% avg, 67% win rate) and the worst is Sep (-0.8% avg, 47% win rate). The full monthly breakdown with win rates, best and worst individual years, and election-cycle filters is shown in the tables above.

See the full seasonal analysis for LOW

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Related Seasonal Patterns

Compare LOW's seasonal trends with similar stocks. Lowe's's best month is Nov (+3.9% avg). See how these related tickers compare.

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