Seasonal Opportunities are date ranges when a commodity has repeatedly gained predictably in the past. A seasonal opportunity could be present for a number of years; seasonality present with a higher number of years has a better chance of repeating the pattern. By default, we look at 10-year history with 9 or 10 years of profitability. We also look at seasonals anywhere from 5 to 75 years. Sometimes, seasonal tendencies are so strong that specific date ranges would be 95% predictable over more than 40 years.
In the above example, commodity Lean Hogs (UK) HE has gained an average of 12.75% between April 10 and April 25th over the last 40 years. The shown date range has been profitable 39 out of 40 years with a profitability of 98% of the years. In 2022 this trade made 9.53% between April 10th and April 24th, it went as high as 18.93% gain.
The second report shows a second HE seasonal opportunity starting on May 1st. HE has dropped an average of 14.5% in 37 of the last 40 years between May 1st and August 28th. 2022 trade is currently Active and if it follows the seasonality of the past 40 years, it should drop to below May 1st level by end of August 2022 as long as inflation doesn’t cause a rise in food prices across the board.