By TradeWave Research · July 9, 2026 · AI-Assisted Research: this analysis is generated from TradeWave’s seasonal analytics and reviewed before publication.
Of the 64 resolved daily picks on TradeWave’s public ledger since March 17, 2026, 80% reached the AI’s predicted gain or closed profitable - every pick recorded, losses shown. Held to close, the secondary measure, sits at 57%. Methodology and every individual pick, including losers, are on the public scorecard. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Of the 64 resolved daily picks on TradeWave’s public ledger since March 17, 2026, 80% reached the AI’s predicted gain or closed profitable - every pick recorded, losses shown.
Sample, as of July 9, 2026: all 75 daily picks flagged to date - 64 resolved, 11 still open and unscored. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every pick, including the losers.
Most published win rates omit the losing trades; ours lists all 13. The ledger is built to be checked, not believed: all 75 picks sit dated on one public page - 40 closed winners, 13 closed losers, 11 open picks that already hit their targets, and 11 still in play.
A track record you cannot audit is an anecdote.
What Counts as a Win?
A pick wins in exactly one of two ways: it reaches the AI’s predicted gain inside its window, or the window closes with the position still profitable. The definition is printed on the scorecard beside the number, because a win rate means nothing until you know what a win is. Hitting the predicted gain is terminal: once a pick touches the number the AI put on it, a later fade cannot un-count it.
By that definition, 51 of the 64 resolved picks have won. The other 13 sit on the same page, in the same table, in red.
What Happened to the Losing Picks?
Thirteen red rows.
That is what most services quietly remove, and it is the part of the ledger we point at first. Of the 53 picks whose windows have fully closed, 40 won and 13 lost, and every loss stays where it landed on the scorecard: dated, resolved, unedited, its losing month summarized beside the winning ones. Nothing gets deleted. Nothing gets restated.
We wrote up the category question separately - an AI stock picker that publishes its losses - but the short version is simple: the losing rows are what make the winning rows worth anything.
How Is the Ledger Computed?
The headline is a fraction, and both halves are strict. The denominator is 64: every pick whose outcome is known - 53 closed windows plus 11 open picks that already reached their predicted gain, because hitting the target settles a pick whether or not the calendar has caught up. The remaining 11 of the 75 are open and count for nothing until they close.
The numerator is 51. Scored on closed windows alone, the rate would read 75.5%; we publish that arithmetic instead of burying it, because how a service counts its open trades is exactly where soft track records go to hide.
Beside the headline sit two companion stats: held to close, the stricter cut, at 57% of closed picks, and a median resolved return of 4.8%, winners and losers together.
The standard behind all of it is five checks: picks timestamped before the outcome, a stated denominator, losses displayed, a defined win condition, and stats computed live from the record - how to tell if a track record is real walks through each one.
So the answer, with the work shown: 80%, on 64 resolved picks, since March 17, 2026, all 13 losses in plain sight. The ledger updates as windows close, and whatever the number becomes, it is computed from the same public rows you can count today. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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FAQ
How is the 80% win rate on TradeWave’s daily pick calculated?
The denominator is all 64 resolved picks: 53 with closed windows plus 11 open picks that already reached their predicted gain. The numerator is 51: 40 closed wins plus those 11 target-hits. Pending picks are excluded entirely until they resolve. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How many of TradeWave’s daily picks have lost?
Thirteen of the 53 picks with closed windows ended as losses, and every one of them stays on the public scorecard, dated and unedited, alongside the 40 closed wins. Publishing the losing rows is the point of the ledger. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What happens to daily picks that are still open?
Of the 75 total picks, 22 are still inside their windows. The 11 that have already reached their predicted gain count as resolved wins; the other 11 count for nothing until their windows close and they enter the record as wins or losses. Past performance does not guarantee future results.