Afshin Moshrefi is the founder-engineer and quantitative researcher behind TradeWave.ai and Seasonal Market News, operated under Tara Data Research LLC. TradeWave is a research platform that detects repeating seasonal patterns in the market - the way a stock or index has tended to move at the same time of year, or across the four-year election cycle. You choose how far back to look, from 1 to 99 years - the major indices carry up to 98 years of actual price history - and judge the pattern for yourself. It covers US stocks, ETFs, indices, futures, forex, and government bonds, and adds an AI win-probability score from a 62-feature model trained on 34.7 million data points. You can reach it on the web or ask for it inside ChatGPT and Claude.
What does TradeWave research?
Repeating seasonal patterns, how those patterns behave in different market conditions, and where the four-year presidential election cycle fits in. Every pattern is defined, measured, and tested over the exact lookback window you pick. The point is evidence you can check, not narrative you have to take on faith.
Why is this different from traditional market analysis?
It is built like an open ledger: every number traces back to the price history it came from, and you set the window and read the result yourself. We would rather be audited than believed, so vague forecasts you cannot test are left out by design. For an active trader, that means a seasonal pattern you can size with conviction because you checked it; for an institution, a research input that survives compliance and due diligence because every figure is reproducible.
Background
Moshrefi’s career spans software engineering, invention, and applied machine learning across multiple industries:
- Built an early medical image management platform adopted across gastroenterology, dermatology, and dentistry.
- Created InstantWeb in the late 1990s, a website generator that allowed users to publish a web presence in minutes, years before mainstream blog-based builders became common.
- At Verizon, authored 16 invention disclosures, including work related to video communication over conventional telephony infrastructure.
- Began focused machine learning work in 2013 and completed formal training by 2017.
- Worked as an AI researcher in medical coding, developing production ML systems for real-world use.
- TradeWave began as a personal research project and became a platform once the patterns proved consistent and repeatable across time.
Published Work
Moshrefi is the author of The 100-Year Pattern, a research-driven book documenting a long-horizon seasonal market pattern and the framework used to test it across regimes. The book is a public explanation of the thesis behind TradeWave’s seasonality and election-cycle research.
Products
- TradeWave.ai - AI-scored seasonal pattern research for US stocks, ETFs, indices, futures, forex, and bonds, with a 1 to 99 year lookback you control and access inside ChatGPT and Claude.
- Seasonal Market News - Institutional-style market news grounded in measurable seasonal history.
- Tara Data Research LLC - Parent company for all research and product work.
About the data behind TradeWave
Every seasonal pattern is computed in-house from end-of-day price history, with up to 98 years of data available for the major indices. The win-probability score comes from a 62-feature gradient-boosted model - many small decision trees stacked into one - tested on 8 years of data it never saw in training, so the results reflect performance on unseen years rather than a fit to the past. Nothing here is investment advice; it is research you are meant to verify. See the full methodology and the research page for the details.